访谈:《生命3.0》中文版译者谈AI必定造成技术性失业

本文是“华尔街见闻”对我的采访。在访谈中,我谈到了科幻作品,技术性失业,我第一次接触AI的机缘,我如何有机会翻译了泰格马克的两本书,我对他的观点的看法,翻译中遇到的趣事等话题。[……]

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The Singularity Is Not Near, But Why?

The technological singularity is a hypothesized time in the near future where machine intelligence surpasses humans. Many people consider it a threat to humanity while others think it will augment humans to a much higher level, physiologically and psychologically. In this paper, I review the state of the art of computing and conclude that singularity will not happen in the near future because of the physical limits of silicon-based computing paradigm. Alternative paradigms are not promising enough to drive the observed exponential growth into the future. Even if artificial general intelligence is possible in the future, it is unnecessary to worry about the bad AI scenario. Instead, we need to worry about the stupidity of machines. AI-related research should be encouraged in order to find the real problems and their solutions. In order to regulate AI, we can treat them as legal persons like companies.[……]

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From Technological Determinism to the Future Growth

I once was a technological optimist and technological determinist. Until recently, I discovered many interesting opinions. This paper is my reflection on the readings so far. First, I discuss the disadvantage of determinism. Then, I use a taxi example to demonstrate why policymakers tend to be technologically deterministic. After that, I show a physicist’s view that sociology is so complex that it can’t be determined by only one factor. Then I discuss the politics in technology and predict that technologies will continue to promote economic growth but at a slower pace.[……]

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My Personal History of Abacus: From Physical to Mental

I’d like to talk about abacus—an ancient cognitive artifact that is still widely used in China. I began learning abacus to do arithmetic since I was six and interestingly, as time went on, there emerged a virtual abacus in my mind every time I need to calculate, which directly manifests the ideal-material-duality of artifacts mentioned by John Dewey, Marx, and Hegel.[……]

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